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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Thursday, July 03, 2008 OF COURSE... A BIAS TOWARD SPENDING, AGAINST TAX CUTS Rudy Penner on the TaxVox blog:The Congressional Budget Office’s expenditure and revenue baseline is supposed to illustrate the budget implications of extending current policy. ...Current policy is not current law. If it were, almost all baseline spending would disappear in a very few years, because most appropriations are good for one year only, and programs such as highway spending and agricultural subsidies must be reauthorized from time to time. Instead of rigorously following current law, the baseline assumes that the Congress will pass new laws that extend such programs. Spending on appropriated discretionary programs is assumed to grow at the rate of inflation, while entitlements are assumed to be reauthorized at current levels. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:27 AM |
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"INFLATION INEQUALITY" SCREWS RICH I'm really getting to like this VoxEU blog, which Mike Darda turned me on to. Check this one out, posted by Christian Broda. The U.S. presidential campaign has sometimes sounded like a contest to prove who despises trade the most... This public debate has taken for granted that inequality...has risen as a result of globalisation. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:14 AM |
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Wednesday, July 02, 2008 OK, WHICH IS IT? Make up your mind!
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:34 PM |
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LET'S BE REALISTIC ABOUT SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUNDS From TaxVox: In reality, as long as we continue to run huge deficits, we will need new sources of capital to help finance economic growth. We can avoid this by saving more, but as long as we won’t, we better hope that foreign investors continue to see the U.S. as an attractive market. After all, as one Hill aide told me this morning, “It is our money. Why wouldn’t we want them to invest it here?” Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:31 PM |
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KUDLOW REPLAY Not my usual edited YouTube video, but here's the CNBC clip of my segments on Kudlow yesterday. This may have marked a climax of pessimism, with one guest talking about a stock market earnings collapse while non-financial earnings are at all-time highs -- and another talking about a first-strike by Iran against Israel as though it were a serious probability. Whew! We gotta be near a bottom here! Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 6:53 AM |
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Monday, June 30, 2008 STOCKS FOR THE LONG-TERM? HELL YES!!! I debate Jared Bernstein on CNBC, who had the back luck to draw the "no" position on this question to which there is really only a "yes" answer. I'm traveling, so no YouTube replay. But here's a link to the clip on CNBC's site.Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:48 PM |
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WHEW... I'M SO GLAD YOU WARNED ME Seen in a Chicago parking garage. No doubt to prevent people from chewing through this steel pipe in the mistaken belief that it contains delicious or valuable waste, as opposed to oily waste -- or perhaps wine or gold coins.
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:02 PM |
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WILL SOMEBODY PLEASE TELL BARACK OBAMA AND JOHN McCAIN? How come we have two populists running for president, when according to Gallup, When given a choice about how government should address the numerous economic difficulties facing today's consumer, Americans overwhelmingly -- by 84% to 13% -- prefer that the government focus on improving overall economic conditions and the jobs situation in the United States as opposed to taking steps to distribute wealth more evenly among Americans. ![]()
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 7:41 PM |
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Sunday, June 29, 2008 KUDLOW REPLAY Here's the YouTube video, in which I suggest that Larry arrange a tryst between Maria Bartiromo and Ben Bernanke.Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:06 AM |
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Saturday, June 28, 2008 YAHOO! AND AT&T LEND THEIR NAMES TO FRAUD See these two satellite dishes laying in a heap on my driveway?
The white diamond-shaped one is my friend of 17 years -- not an a actual satellite dish, but rather a microwave transceiver. It was installed on the hill above my home in 2001 with a line-of-sight to a Sprint tower many miles away across the San Francisco Bay. Back in 2001 it was the only way to get anything like broadband internet in the rustic canyon in which I live, and it was a pretty good deal. Got about 0.8 mps out of it, download and upload -- and it was an honest 0.8, very consistent. Back when it was installed that was about as good as broadband got, anyway -- though now that's considered slow, and really isn't up to the video content that now dominates the web. Sprint has just had to discontinue the service after all these years, because of a regulatory reallocation of the spectrum that that it uses. So I've had to shop for alternatives. You can't get DSL up here in the hills. And though Comcast had cabled my canyon a year or so back, when I investigated last year they wanted many thousands of dollars to bring the cable to my house, which is quite a distance off the road. So I asked my telephony provider AT&T what they recommended, and they referred me to a product that they co-brand with Yahoo!, called WildBlue. So I called WildBlue and signed up. That was the only good part of the experience -- and it turns out to have been what amounts to a fraud. The big gray dish in the picture is the WildBlue dish, after I ripped it off my roof and threw it there on my driveway, on the way to an further dumping in a public dumspster somewhere. I was promised a free installation. I was promised assistance in getting the WildBlue signal to work with my home network. I was promised download speed of 1.5 mps, and upload speed of 0.25 mps (that is, if I paid a premium price for their highest echelon of service). Every bit of that was a lie. When the installer came, he announced that my installation was "special" and would require an additional payment of $240 -- a check to be made out to him, not to WildBlue. Once the dish was installed on my roof, the installer screwed the modem in, tested the signal on my laptop (it connected to the web successfully) and announced that he was done. I told him I had been promised that he would configure my home network to work with the new service -- he said he didn't really do that kind of thing, but that he knew how, and would do it as a favor to me. Two hours later, it turned out he didn't have the slightest idea how to do it, and in the process of proving that to me he rendered my home network completely inoperable, even with the Sprint signal. Ultimately I called a tech-savvy friend to come rescue me, and he managed to get it all set to right. But then it turned out that the advertised speed was not in fact, what the dish was able to deliver. Downloads were typically clocking at about 1.1 mps (1.5 had been promised -- remember, I paid extra for that). Uploads never exceeded even 0.1 mps (I had been promised 0.25). At least on the download side you'd think that I ought to be somewhat satisfied -- after all, it was faster than Sprint had been. But experientially that wasn't true. I don't know why, but even though WildBlue scored better than Sprint on speed tests, the reality of using the two services was that WildBlue was horribly slower. It wasn't much better than dial-up, actually. So I called tech support at WildBlue. They went through a test with me, got 1.1 mps down and 0.8 up -- and then told me that these speeds were within their "service specifications." I hung up, and immediately started finding an alternative. I ended up with Comcast. With a year having past, they have changed their installation cost policies, and ended up doing a very complicated cabling from their pole to my house (including 300 feet of trenching, some of which under a road) all for free. The speed is fabulous, and the cost is the same that WildBlue charged. So with Comcast all up and running, I called WildBlue yesterday to cancel. I was told that I would have to pay all charges so far ($411 for first month and the equipment, plus the $240 the installer pocketed), plus a $650 cancellation fee. I told them that the product was a disappointment in every way, that everything they had promised about it was a lie, and that I wanted a complete refund and no further charges. They told me that the speeds they promised me weren't promised, just indications. And they told me that I have signed a contract committing to these payments (in fact, I have not ever signed anything with them -- another lie). So here's where it stands. I've notified Visa that my card is being used fraudulently. I'm going to rely on them to straighten this out. If they can't, there'll be a lot more blogging, and maybe a little suing. Update [6/29/2008]... Reader Rick Hicks contributes, Thought I could help on a few topics.Update 2 [6/29/2008]... Julian Murdoch advises, Dude, you so should have called me. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 9:30 PM |
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Friday, June 27, 2008 KRUGMAN AGREES WITH ME ...that "index speculators" aren't responsible for high oil prices. But that doesn't mean he wants to miss an opporunity to regulate markets! He says, "...growing demand from emerging economies, not speculation, is the real story behind rising prices of...oil..." But "Regulating futures markets more tightly isn’t a bad idea..."Josh Hendrickson writes, Paul Krugman has placed himself front and center in the debate as to whether or not oil prices are out of line with fundamentals (he believes the prices do reflect fundamentals). Isn't it therefore time to declare oil prices to be the latest bubble? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:19 AM |
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Thursday, June 26, 2008 JOKE OF THE DAYPosted by Donald L. Luskin at 11:04 PM |
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KUDLOW REPLAY Here's the YouTube video of Tuesday's appearance, in which I am forced to inject a note of seriousness into the discourse of A. Gary Shilling -- or is that The. Gary Shilling? I'm never sure. Note the Dr. Evil freezeframe, courtesy of YouTube. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:00 PM |
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