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Chronicle of the Conspiracy Saturday, December 21, 2002
Morgenson has to dance gingerly now when it comes to AT&T because Citigroup's settlement Friday with New York State attorney general Eliot Spitzer and other regulators specifically lets Weill off the hook for lack of evidence of wrong-doing. That's not an occasion for a retraction from Morgenson, of course -- just silence. But more important, Morgenson doesn't want to talk about AT&T now because I've exposed her own 1999 "buy" rating on it, in which she went so far as to recommend AT&T "for widows and orphans." And I've exposed her shameful cover-up of her own "buy" rating, in which she falsely claimed that all she had done was quote a too-bullish analyst. So let's talk about WorldCom instead. Let's do more than talk -- let's do "Queen for a Day," and let the audience applause-meter measure the pathos of competing sob stories from Grubman's alleged victims. We have two contestants today...
Unfortunately, we're out of time on the show. We can't bring on any widows or orphans who bought AT&T on Gretchen Morgenson's advice, when it was trading above $60 (now it's at $26.58, having been far lower earlier this year). I know what my own personal applause-meter would show on this one. I'd have a lot more sympathy for the huge number of relatively uninformed ordinary folks who read the New York Times, and bought AT&T because its trusted columnist told them it was appropriate for widows and orphans, than I would for the handful of relatively sophisticated investors who were exposed to Grubman's reports. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 5:36 PM | link
Thursday, December 19, 2002
On his weblog yesterday, DeLong weighed in with an argument in support of the core proposition of "Rubinomics," which is an anti-growth anti-tax-cut political point of view disguised as a law of economic nature (and which we roundly refuted earlier this week). That point of view holds that federal budget deficits lead to higher interest rates. Commenting on a lengthy report on this proposition that ran in the Wall Street Journal yesterday -- which was bull-shit -- DeLong contributed the following elephant-shit dropping:
Don't be intimidated by the intellectual bullying at the end -- it's DeLong that's "analytically weak" here (like most "normal economists," by the way). Consider:
At its heart, DeLong's argument -- like the proposition it is intended to support -- is just a distraction. The real question is not whether deficits retard growth -- it's whether tax-cuts stimulate growth. The question is whether lowering taxes will be a deadweight cost to government in the form of lower revenues, or whether the cuts would stimulate enough new economic activity to pay for themselves and more. And another question is how big the government's expense budget should be in the first place (entirely apart from how it is financed). And what should that budget be spent on? But we can't get to those questions, because the "normal economist" Brad DeLong has buttonholed us at the water cooler in the faculty lounge at UC Berkeley, and is showing off how much he knows about the laws of economic nature. OK professor, I'm impressed. That's some fine elephant-shit you've got there. But sorry -- gotta run. I live in the real world and it's time to get back to it. There are battles to be won. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:40 AM | link
UN-FACT OF THE DAY: GRATED EXPECTATIONS From our erstwhile informant "Irrational Exuberance," more evidence that you can't trust anything you read. Here's a Dow Jones wire story with the headline "U.S. Weekly Jobless Claims Fell More Than Expected." The text says,
Which is true? Text or headline? What source would you trust to determine which? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:18 AM | link
Wednesday, December 18, 2002 STEELE ON LOTT Shelby Steele has now weighed in on the Trent Lott controversy. A Hoover Institution scholar and the author of The Content of Our Character: A New Vision of Race in America, Steele is the most inspiring spokesman about race relations from the libertarian universe, and I mentioned him in my Sunday commentary on Lott. In a must-read op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal, Steel offers the deepest reason why freedom-loving conservatives should call for Lott's removal from the Senate leadership:
Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 8:54 AM | link
Tuesday, December 17, 2002
Here's last Sunday's. Morgenson's entire text is here, indented. My comments are interspersed, without indent.
Always be wary when a column begins with "At last..." That means you're about to read a column that uses some news event as a hook to promote a point of view that the columnist already had. Look for proof that the news hook actually ties into anything larger than itself -- in this case, Morgenson doesn't mention even a single other example of the "more and more institutional investors" who are doing this "at last." And beware of metaphors used in place of logic or proof -- this column has two metaphor layers. As you will see, the news hook turns out to be an investor lawsuit against a public company. But Morgenson doesn't just report the facts about it -- before she even describes it she's already framed it metaphorically as a story of class warfare. She offers no proof that the lawsuit is about any such grandiose thing, however -- but that lack is papered over with more metaphor. Siebel is an "empire" and its executives are "imperial." The opposition are noble but oppressed peasants whose only weapons are their humble "pitchforks." Morgenson uses these metaphors to frame her class-warfare case because she doesn't have the confidence or the brazenness of Times columnist and former paid member of Enron's Advisory Board Paul Krugman -- he'd skip the metaphors and just call the executives "plutocrats" and those opposed to them "decent people."
This paragraph is apparently factual. (I have not independently verified Morgenson's characterization of the issues in the lawsuit.)
Here the column starts evolving from fact to spin. Why, of all the directors, single out Charles Schwab? Because he's famous? Because he is associated with the Bush administration? And note that the factual description of what the Teachers' Retirement System of Louisiana has asked -- the return of the options -- is expressed from their partisan point of view: return of "what it calls the 'tainted options.'"
Nothing in this quotation of the retirement plan's lawyer supports the merit of the case. What it supports is the theme of Morgenson's column -- that Siebel is a corrupt empire and that those who oppose it are noble. Readers of this column have no way of knowing what else, if anything, the lawyer told Morgenson -- she gets to decide what questions to ask him, and she gets to decide what to print. This is what she chose.
Seibel's response is presented much more matter-of-factly, with no actual quotations from named company officials. Did Morgenson actually talk to anyone at Siebel, or did she get this information about Siebel's response elsewhere (court filings, press releases, other media coverage)... she doesn't say. But the result is that Morgenson presents the pension fund in a humanized, colorful and sympathetic way -- but not Siebel.
This paragraph is a troubling mixture of fact, judgment, and self-interested advocacy. How does Morgenson know that Siebel has been a "big believer" in stock options, and what does that mean, and why is it relevant? The unavoidably subjective $1 billion valuation of Mr. Siebel's options at the time of grant (options have no tangible value until and unless they are exercised) is provided by the retirement fund that is suing the company. We are not told the source of the statistics of Mr. Siebel's realized profits. Fact? Allegation in the suit?
These three paragraphs are simply recitations of the claims of the lawsuit -- much as the plaintiff's lawyer might make as part of summing up before a jury -- but not all the claims are labeled as allegations, and the significance of the allegations is not examined. Is it important how many times a compensation committee meets? Why? Is it important how much members of the compensation committee earned? Why? Who knows, but I guess Morgenson must think it sounds bad. So there it is, uncritically reported.
Now a small concession to balance -- but it doesn't even last an entire sentence. We are not told the source of the defense that Morgenson puts in Siebel's mouth -- "Siebel Systems says its option program motivates employees" -- but we are told in the very same sentence that it is inadequate, because "it is not clear why Mr. Siebel needs motivating." Not clear to whom? Gretchen Morgenson? Of what possible significance is it as a moral criterion whether Mr. Siebel's need for motivation is "clear" to a newspaper columnist? But it's not about clarity at all -- that's just a pompous figure of speech that should have been edited out. The issue is that Morgenson has arbitrarily decided -- apparently based on no research or analysis at all -- that Siebel's 7.5% stake in the company he created ought to be enough to motivate him. But why? Maybe 8.5% is required. Or maybe 7.5% is already too much, and it actually de-motivates him and ought to be cut in half. Whatever it is, what makes Morgenson or anyone else but Mr. Siebel and his board and his shareholders expert about it?
"Siebel's reaction"? What reaction? Morgenson has not directly quoted any reaction at all -- what reaction was indirectly reported earlier in the column was a flat-out denial of the charges, and now nothing more than that Siebel doesn't wish to let an independent accountant decide an issue that it believes should not be in contention. Why is denial of wrong-doing an example of "me-first practices"? If Gretchen Morgenson were falsely accused of taking a bag of potato chips from Floyd Norris's desk, would it be a "me-first practice" if she denied it? Whom other than herself would she be putting first by lying about it and confessing to a crime she didn't commit?
If to deny wrong-doing is to stiff-arm, then Morgenson's arms are a stiff as anyone else's. A couple weeks ago I exposed her deceptive attempt to cover up her 1999 column in which she recommended the stock of AT&T for widows and orphans, by falsely characterizing it as the opinion of an analyst whom she in fact had quoted only tangentially. I called Morgenson for comments, and she denied that it was a cover-up. As Morgenson might say, "Amazing, isn't it?" Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 1:48 AM | link
Monday, December 16, 2002
"An article on Nov. 10 about animal rights referred erroneously to an island in the Indian Ocean and to events there involving goats and endangered giant sea sparrows that could possibly lead to the killing of goats by environmental groups. Wrightson Island does not exist; both the island and the events are hypothetical figments from a book (also mentioned in the article), 'Beginning Again,' by David Ehrenfeld. No giant sea sparrow is known to be endangered by the eating habits of goats."The original article containing the error was "An Animal's Place" by Michael Pollan, a 7490-word feature on -- believe it or not -- the civil rights of animals. Here's the original passage: "In 1611 Juan da Goma (aka Juan the Disoriented) made accidental landfall on Wrightson Island, a six-square-mile rock in the Indian Ocean. The island's sole distinction is as the only known home of the Arcania tree and the bird that nests in it, the Wrightson giant sea sparrow. Da Goma and his crew stayed a week, much of that time spent in a failed bid to recapture the ship's escaped goat -- who happened to be pregnant. Nearly four centuries later, Wrightson Island is home to 380 goats that have consumed virtually every scrap of vegetation in their reach. The youngest Arcania tree on the island is more than 300 years old, and only 52 sea sparrows remain. In the animal rights view, any one of those goats have at least as much right to life as the last Wrightson sparrow on earth, and the trees, because they are not sentient, warrant no moral consideration whatsoever. (In the mid-80's a British environmental group set out to shoot the goats, but was forced to cancel the expedition after the Mammal Liberation Front bombed its offices.)"As absurd as the correction sounds today, if you had been reading the original article six weeks ago, would you have questioned this passage? Would you have questioned the satirical tone of "Juan the Disoriented" -- the Swiftian style of the "Arcania" tree -- the absurdity of a "Mammal Liberation Front"? Or would you have just accepted it, relying on the reputation of the New York Times, the author, the editor, the paper's fact-checkers? Would you have just figured, hey, this is America's "newspaper of record" -- it's gotta be right…! Sure why not… after all, it's further damning evidence of man's meddling with nature, and his bumbling attempts to put things right. Just remember this next time you read a story or a commentary in the New York Times' business section or op-ed page by Morgenson or Krugman or Altman or Norris. Remember that there are some things that the New York Times doesn't bother to fact-check, because they regard them to be self-evidently true -- no matter how absurd. So you're just going to have to do your own fact-checking, aren't you? Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 3:19 PM | link
Sunday, December 15, 2002
Lott has been an ineffective agent for the pro-growth and pro-capitalist point of view. But now an already ineffective leader has rendered himself downright counterproductive. His racist remarks have cost him his moral legitimacy, and without that a leader simply cannot lead -- and, indeed, should not. The issue of moral legitimacy was driven home for me by a presentation I heard at a Cato Institute meeting several months ago by Hoover Institution scholar Shelby Steele, who has written extensively about race relations in politics, education and business (his best known book is the remarkable The Content of Our Character: A New Vision of Race in America). Steele argued that race relations are now the central focus of public morality, and the acid test of moral authority and legitimacy. Steele points out that, in the 1950s, President Dwight Eisenhower was quoted in the press as having used a particular racial slur -- the N-word -- on the golf course. It was handled as a minor embarrassment, and it soon passed. If he had been caught having an affair with a White House intern and then lied about it, he would have been driven out of office in a matter of weeks. In the modern era, President Bill Clinton survived impeachment over sexual misconduct and lying about it. Steele invites us to ask ourselves: what would have happened if, during the impeachment process, a videotape had surfaced in which Clinton were caught speaking the N-word to Monica Lewinsky? Surely then George Bush's opponent in the last presidential election would have been President Al Gore. A leader who has lost moral legitimacy cannot lead -- he is forever a follower, willing to compromise with anyone and anything in order to find forgiveness. The cause of growth and capitalism needs a legitimate leader, and should never be made to compromise. So while politics may make strange bedfellows, it's high time that advocates of growth and capitalism got the hell out of bed with Trent Lott and anyone else like him. We should never have been there to begin with, and now our own moral legitimacy is at stake. Suddenly, gone are the days when anyone could say, "Well, yes, he's a racist -- but he always votes for tax cuts." Now we must make that a much shorter sentence: "He's a racist." Period. We can find better people to vote for tax cuts. Posted by Donald L. Luskin at 10:34 PM | link
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